On the peak of its powers, the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP), which took over the reins in 1999, boasted of ruling the nation for 60 consecutive years. Although its reign was reduce brief in 2015, the potential for its return to the saddle remained potent till the 2023 common election. Common Editor, TAIWO ADISA periscopes PDP’s supposedly easy experience which led to a ditch in 2023.
The 2023 common election proved decisive for the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP). The social gathering that confirmed a lot promise of its return to energy after the 2015 mishap crumbled massively in 2023, shedding most of its strongholds to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). To many, the outcomes got here towards the run of play. Many others have adduced a number of causes, with some putting the blame on the hitches recorded by the Impartial Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) within the build-up to the election. Nevertheless, it might take some deep seems to be into the undercurrents throughout the social gathering earlier than the nationwide conference of 2021, the presidential primaries of Could 2022, and the 2023 presidential election to get near the roots of the colossal fall suffered by the octopus-like social gathering within the final election.
English author, Williams Shakespeare, gave the drama world numerous performs to proceed to shew, a few years after his demise. One of many comedies he bequeathed to the theatre world is The Taming of the Shrew. It tells of how the suitor managed to tame the bossy, temperamental, and troublesome girl into submission.
Although the connection between the PDP and the Nigerian populace showcased the social gathering because the husband who assumed the willy, bossy, temperamental, and hard-to-manage character, the populace assumed the normal position of the African spouse, meek, easygoing and calm, accepting regardless of the husband throws at her.
The PDP, which took over the reins of energy at the beginning of the nation’s Fourth Republic, by way of the elections of 1998/1999, behaved as if it had captured the spirit of the Nigerian, ab initio. It was bullish and domineering, leaving little or no area for its rivals, the All Peoples Occasion (APP) later All Nigeria Peoples Occasion (ANPP), and the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Within the elections that ushered in democratic rule in 1999, the PDP had 21 governors, plus two-thirds majority management of the Nationwide Meeting and the presidency. The APP had 9 governors, whereas the AD had six states below its management.
By 2003, the coast had enlarged with PDP retaining the presidency, two-thirds of the Nationwide Meeting, and 27 governors, although Anambra later modified to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) following a ruling of the courtroom, to scale back the quantity to 26. The ANPP had eight governors with AD having just one state. PDP’s invincibility continued in 2007 when it retained the presidency and a majority of seats within the Nationwide Meeting. The social gathering initially gained 32 states earlier than shedding Osun and Ekiti to the Motion Congress (AC), whereas profitable Ondo which was initially gained by the Labour Occasion (LP) to its fold. Within the 2011 election, the PDP gained 23 states and retained its maintain on the Nationwide Meeting, whereas in 2015, the Nigerian girl appeared to have grown wiser, leaving the PDP with 13 governors, and a little bit above one-third of the Nationwide Meeting. The All Progressives Congress (APC), which upstaged the previous ruling social gathering had 22 states, whereas APGA retained Anambra State. What occurred within the 2015 election appeared a classical showcase of the destiny that befell the behemoth PDP on the polls in 2019 and 2023.
All by way of the election seasons, between 1999 and 2011, the PDP was capable of preserve a agency maintain on the Nigerian citizens, leaving the opposition to choose the crumbs. The trouncing of the social gathering by the APC in 2015, was, nonetheless, regarded by many as a short lived setback. Those that nursed that feeling believed that the coalition that shaped the APC could be unable to carry on to energy as they had been anticipated to be torn aside by the power-sharing components.
The imminence of PDP’s return to Aso Rock was significantly actual, particularly following the return of a number of the energy brokers who left for the APC in 2014 within the build-up to the 2019 election. The social gathering was seen to have accomplished properly in that election and even now, some nonetheless imagine that the PDP gained the 2019 presidential election. To that class, the APC allegedly deployed incumbency powers to stay in workplace.
That mindset coupled with the overall socio-economic and political circumstances the APC authorities had plunged the nation into within the eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari had set the stage for the 2023 election. The election pitched former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP towards a former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu (APC), former Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi of Labour Occasion (LP), and one other former governor of Kano State, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Occasion (NNPP).
Simply earlier than the social gathering primaries
It may be stated that a lot of the inspiration for the end result of the February 2023 election was laid earlier than the primaries of the PDP and the APC. The PDP was the primary to repair a date for its primaries. There have been calculations throughout the two events as to the place the social gathering’s normal bearer ought to come from. The stage was void because the North versus South calculation trended. Within the APC, President Muhammadu Buhari didn’t give sufficient clues to his henchmen, resulting in the obvious fax paus by the then Nationwide Chairman of the APC, Senator Abdullahi Adamu to surreptitiously announce Senate President, Ahmed Lawan because the consensus presidential candidate.
Throughout the PDP, two sturdy camps had emerged. A camp, which favoured the emergence of Atiku Abubakar believed that the social gathering’s ticket ought to go to the North. There was an argument that the South produced the final president of the social gathering. The camp loyal to then Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, was, nonetheless, insisting on the decision of the Southern Governors’ Discussion board on energy shift and {that a} Southerner ought to emerge.
Interplays contained in the PDP
Throughout the PDP, the Governors’ Discussion board had taken cost lengthy earlier than the primaries. The unity among the many governors within the wake of the removing of former Nationwide Chairman, Uche Secondus was infectious. Nearly the entire governors had been dealing with one course they usually calculated that the previous guard could be swept apart within the 2023 election.
Nyesom Wike was turning into the rallying level and Atiku was wanting extra just like the antagonist. With the emergence of Dr. Iyorchia Ayu as Secondus’ substitute, the PDP Governors’ Discussion board bought extra energized. Conferences upon conferences stored suggesting the dedication of the governors to supply the presidential normal bearer within the 2023 election.
The choice to choose Ayu forward of Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who was the preliminary goal was stated to be borne out of the dedication of the governors for a “clear break” from management by the retired army high brass and the previous guard. Oyinlola was thought of near former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Common Ibrahim Babangida.
By the way, the emergence of Ayu had considerably laid the inspiration for what later emerged as G5 governors. After the place of Chairman was zoned to North Central, for the sake of Ayu, Oyinlola threw his hat into the ring for the publish of Deputy Nationwide Chairman, South. Each effort was made by the governors to get him to again down since Governor Seyi Makinde had endorsed Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja for the slot. After a collection of conferences, which noticed the acclaimed previous guard together with Atiku, Senators David Mark, Ike Ekweremadu and different Board of Trustees members supporting Oyinlola, the camp of the governors was distraught that their plot to scheme out the previous Osun governor was foiled as he ultimately discovered himself on the poll regardless of the machinations by the governors. Whereas expressing his annoyance to some social gathering males, one of many governors was stated to have vowed to show Atiku a lesson for making certain that Oyinlola’s title was on the poll on the October 2021 Nationwide Conference.
Within the build-up to the presidential primaries, the Wike camp was stated to have rigorously weaved a plot that led Peter Obi to depart the social gathering in anger, after having allegedly seized the construction of Anambra PDP from him, utilizing Ayu. The Wike camp, together with Wike himself, the governor of Rivers State, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Samuel Ortom of Benue, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu, and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia was stated to have additional intensified on the animosity that they had nursed from the presidential primaries in Could 2022, after which hid below the Southern agenda declare, to launch the G5 and represent a key offensive that threw Atiku’s camp off stability within the election course of.
2022 presidential primaries
On the PDP Presidential primaries on Could 28, 2022, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar gained with 371 votes to 327 polled by Wike. The victory was stated to have emerged through a last-minute withdrawal of the then Sokoto State governor, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal in favour of Atiku.
Although Wike had promised to help whoever emerged as winner of the PDP primaries, sources instructed the Nigerian Tribune that instantly after Atiku gained, Wike and his loyalist governors moved to safe a foothold within the APC, by reaching out to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, believed to be the main contender within the APC. Thereafter, regardless of the discussions with Atiku by the G5 had been stated to be mere veils overlaying the principle intentions. It was gathered that the camp had already perfected a little bit to the proper and a little bit to the left association that might undermine Atiku and maintain it on the proper aspect of energy in 2023.
Politics of G5 governors
Initially, the G5 governors had been capable of masks their unique agitation as one fueled by the push for Southern presidency. Although sources had confirmed that their major intention was to cease Atiku and rid the PDP of the perceived “army management.”
Regardless of a collection of conferences held with Atiku and his emissaries on methods ahead, in Nigeria and London, a supply stated that G5’s moimoin had continued to hit the bottom on its flat aspect. There appeared no leeway within the offing. A supply stated that the shock was that Atiku lacked the requisite intelligence report which ought to have confirmed to him that the G5 had already moved on instantly after the PDP primaries. The group was, nonetheless, capable of give Atiku not possible conditions- asking Ayu to go.
By the way, Atiku’s camp had calculated that Ayu’s departure would create extra risks as the following in line, the Deputy Nationwide Chairman, North, Umar Damagun, is from the North East like Atiku. If the G5 once more, ought to demand Damagun’s resignation, due to his homeland, the lot for the management of the social gathering would then fall on Arapaja, an ally of Seyi Makinde, who’s a key member of G5.
Thus, because the election was drawing shut, each events continued to stall. The G5 governors had continued to strengthen their ties with Tinubu whereas projecting not possible situations for Atiku. Because the drama unfolded, sources quoted Wike as saying that he might by no means work with Atiku so far as Tambuwal was coordinating the presidential marketing campaign. Although Nigerians anticipated the G5 to publicly announce their most well-liked presidential candidate early in 2023, nothing of such occurred, it emerged that the deal had been sealed with Tinubu lengthy earlier than the election.
Position of the enterprise neighborhood
As quickly as Tinubu, Obi, and Atiku emerged as the foremost contenders within the 2023 race, the enterprise neighborhood was stated to have kick-started their seek for the candidate they’d work with. Sources within the polity confirmed {that a} collection of hushtones ultimately led to a lunch outing in Lagos, the place it was lastly agreed that Tinubu was the particular person to help. It was learnt that the transient lunch occasion raised greater than $10 million to help the candidate they believed was most viable.
Atiku’s failure to pluck low-hanging fruits
A veteran within the presidential contest, the 2023 election was simply there for Atiku to take. It was like a gaping purpose the place the striker was on their lonesome. His defeat simply ranks because the alter ego of Yakubu Aiyegbeni’s well-known miss within the 2010 World Cup match between Nigeria and South Korea in a match performed at Durban Stadium in South Africa. The APC authorities of President Muhammadu Buhari had made the competition a simple one for Atiku through its financial insurance policies. There was gasoline shortage dotting the election interval. There was an uncommon naira shortage, which positioned the lives of many in peril. So many unhelpful financial insurance policies positioned the lives of residents within the stability. These insurance policies had been dangerous ads towards the APC and supposedly its candidate within the election.
Maybe, having seen Atiku’s failure to maintain de-marketing the ruling social gathering and its candidate with the dangerous insurance policies, Tinubu needed to flip issues round and declare to be the goal of Buhari’s insurance policies. At a stage, former Info Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed needed to voice out towards Tinubu marketing campaign’s tactical distancing from the ruling social gathering’s insurance policies.
To members of Atiku’s camp, the truth that the APC had left the nation in disarray was an enormous plus. To them, “it was an indication the candidate didn’t have to do a lot, and what number of Nigerians would even contact the APC with an extended spoon?”
Whether or not it was complacency or an absence of technique, Atiku’s males left an excessive amount of to be desired within the presidential race. First was his failure to carry on to Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Occasion (NNPP), which created an upset profitable Kano State, after which his choice to permit Peter Obi to exit the PDP fold was one other misnomer, an analyst stated.
With the good thing about hindsight, insiders within the social gathering stated that Atiku ought to have handled the PDP insurgency extra decisively. A supply stated that Atiku witnessed how Obasanjo disentangled himself from the “Mandela possibility” conspiracy, kneeling the place he might and prostrating the place essential. “In 2002/2003, there have been bids together with Mandela Choice and impeachment bids towards Obasanjo. Atiku noticed how OBJ went about disentangling himself from the limbo,” a supply stated.
One other supply stated that Atiku ought to have learnt from the G7 agitation towards President Goodluck Jonathan. “When the G7 agitation began towards Jonathan, it was taken with levity. The previous president dismissed the agitation however ultimately, 5 of the governors shaped nPDP, and defected to the APC, and that led to the autumn of Jonathan’s presidency in 2015.
“When Obasanjo was the chief of the PDP, and he didn’t need Rotimi Amaechi and Ifeanyi Araraume as governorship candidates in Rivers and Imo States respectively, he withdrew the tickets and damned the implications. So it’s both Atiku deal decisively with the insurgents in his social gathering or agree with no matter situation they gave him,” a supply equally stated. It was additionally stated that whereas Atiku had his key challengers from the South, he left the axis largely naked with out strategists and satisfactory media interventions. Whereas the Emilokan slogan and holy household claims had been sweeping throughout the South-West and South East, Atiku’s males had been probably negligent of the implications, it was gathered.
Atiku’s arrow haunting PDP?
When Atiku was Vice President, sources stated he initiated a plot by which Younger Turks would take management of Northern politics. It was learnt that his lack of the North-West in 2023 may very well be attributed to his arrow coming to hang-out the launcher because the Northern Younger Turks had been stated to have queued largely behind the APC. That was stated to have knowledgeable why APC gained 44 per cent of North-West votes to PDP’s 33.9 per cent. The truth that the APC candidate was capable of leverage a nationwide outlook forward of the PDP additionally did the social gathering in.
As an example, APC polled a 58.4 per cent victory within the South West; the place PDP polled 21.6, LP bought 19.5 p.c and NNPP bought 0.38 per cent. Within the North Central, the APC scored 41.3 per cent in comparison with LP’s 33.2 p.c, PDP’s 24.1 p.c, and NNPP’s 1.4 per cent. Within the North West, APC bought 41 per cent forward of the PDP which polled 33.9, and NNPP which bought 19.6 per cent. PDP gained 55.9 per cent of North East votes however was intently marked by the APC which bought 29.9 and LP with 10.1, whereas NNPP bought 4.05 per cent. Within the South-South, LP took the initiative from PDP by profitable 44.2 per cent, APC scored 29.1 per cent, PDP was pushed to 3rd spot with 26.1 per cent, whereas NNPP scored 0.63 per cent. The South East was misplaced massively by the PDP for the primary time since 1999, with LP sweeping dwelling 89.6 per cent of the votes. APC scored 5.8 per cent to come back second whereas the PDP, conventional holders of the crown within the zone got here third with 4.2 per cent. NNPP polled 0.38 per cent. Regardless of the unfold of its members throughout Nigeria, the PDP gained just one geopolitical zone within the 2023 election. The APC gained three; LP’s Obi gained two.
PDP, the quandary proper now
Two occasions that unfolded just lately throughout the precincts of the nationwide secretariat of the PDP, Wadata Plaza, Abuja, had been fairly instructive. The occasions that occurred one week after the opposite instructed a lot concerning the state of an abyss and lack of course within the PDP. One week, some loyalists of Atiku, the presidential candidate of the social gathering within the 2023 election, took over the environment, calling for the ouster of the Performing Nationwide Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagun.
The next week, supporters of the performing nationwide chairman responded by staging their protest, declaring that the person was doing properly. Recall that Damagun took over the mantle of management of the social gathering after the ouster of Dr Iyorchia Ayu, in March, following the protracted battle between Atiku and the G5 group of governors, led by Wike. The drama was a present of how deep the PDP had sunk right into a gap in latest instances and maybe a purveyor of how far it’d stay buried below the rubble.
Although the Atiku/Damagun spar ought to have been an Atiku/Wike battle, the truth that Wike is on task as FCT Minister presently means Damagun has to face in for him. Sources within the PDP stated that the management disaster is a posh battle. Whereas some forces are stated to be pushing for the retention of Damagun until the nationwide conference is possible, probably in 2025, others are pushing for a brand new starting, whereby the likes of Wike and others would face punishment. That nonetheless seems a tall order as issues stand. It was stated that the performing chairman, the social gathering’s nationwide secretary, the deputy nationwide chairman, South and high members of the Nationwide Working Committee (NWC) are loyalists of Wike and the G5 Governors.