Has Joe Biden finally had enough of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and, if so, will he take any action beyond swearing about him?
On Monday it was widely reported the US President had described the Israeli leader as an “a–hole” and might start to dial down the flow of American aid and weapons to Israel.
Mr Netanyahu’s rejection of Hamas’s contribution to the ongoing peace talks as “delusional”, his fearsome calls for “total victory” and his threatened assault on Rafah, where over a million displaced are sheltering, appeared to have finally cut through.
“The bluntness of Biden’s private, unfiltered reflections on Netanyahu, as well as Israeli premier’s failure to shift tactics in Gaza, suggest that the dynamic between the two leaders could be nearing an inflection point,” reported NBC, the American news network which broke the story.
“He just feels like this is enough,” it quoted one of Mr Biden’s team as saying. “It has to stop.”
Shifting opinion
There is little doubt international opinion is shifting against Israel and – encouraged by the strictures of international law – some countries are beginning to take action.
The US and UK have slapped sanctions on a small number of “extremist settlers” in the West Bank. The Dutch appeals court yesterday ordered the government to block the delivery of parts for F-35 fighter aircraft to Israel. And on Friday, the White House issued a new national security memorandum that requires Congress to check that countries receiving US weapons are abiding by International law.
These and other sanctions will no doubt ratchet up as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice in the Hague (ICJ) continue to pursue investigations against Israel.
No government wants to be caught on the wrong side of a war crimes prosecution (not least one of genocide), and domestic law in many countries is automatically triggered, blocking exports etc, where countries are found to be in breach of international law.
A key moment will come on on Feburary 26 when Israel must report back to the ICJ, explaining how it has complied with its orders of last month to alleviate suffering in Gaza and prevent and punish incitement to genocide in Israel.
On the other hand, Israel is no pushover and has long factored in international pressure in its calculations for war. The Israeli defence establishment – which stretches far beyond Mr Netanyahu – has long talked about pursuing military campaigns “against the clock of international opinion” and is expert at slowing it down.
Electoral calculations
An entire division of the ministry of defence is dedicated to information warfare, carefully curating the information flow from within Gaza, and whipping up suspicion against the Red Cross and the UN whose activities naturally constrain military action.
And in America, too, Mr Biden’s calculations must stretch beyond what he judges to be right or moral. He has an election to fight in November and needs to move with extreme care.
On the one hand he must deal with swing states like Michigan, where the Arab American vote is significant, and with young people, black voters and so called “progressives” who, polling shows, are increasingly disapproving of Israel.
On the other hand, he has the Jewish vote to consider, much of which has traditionally gone to the Democrats, but which could start to erode further if he is seen as too tough on Israel.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, seems content for now to sit on the fence. Will he back Mr Netanyahu to secure a larger part of the Jewish vote, or might he decide to denounce the Gaza conflict as “just another expensive foreign war” in a bid to woo the disenchanted young?
The only thing one can say with much certainty, is that Mr Netanyahu, Mr Trump and Mr Biden will ultimately be led by the votes they perceive are in it for them.
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