‘Fifty or 60 more and it could be interesting,’ said a certain Ian Botham at the end of the most resonant session in England’s history at Leeds in 1981. The following morning they made only five more yet, as we all know, they still managed to win. “Well,” he said that afternoon, toking on a cheroot. “It made it even more interesting.”
If it seems borderline blasphemous to invoke Headingley 81, it’s only to remind ourselves that England have been in more dangerous foxholes before and somehow got out of them on the winning side. That still seems improbable this morning, which they begin 126 ahead by virtue of Ollie Pope’s magnificent 148* and his 112-run partnership with Ben Foakes. The two men of Surrey not only rescued England from what seemed a certain three-day mauling, they have inspired hope that their technique and temperament can make Ben Stokes’ side competitive in this series. If the lessons they learned from first innings to third can be replicated by the bowlers from second to fourth, England have a chance on a pitch that is only becoming more unpredictable.
And yet CrickViz’s view that England have a 25 per cent chance of victory seems too high to this observer unless both Mark Wood (23 away wickets at 18 bowling in the second innings compared with 26 at 31 in the first) and Joe Root (15 at 49 in the second innings away from home compared with 24 at 39 in the first) take the majority of the wickets. Jack Leach is still having problems with his knee and Tom Hartley and Rehan Ahmed seem too raw to chip in with more than the odd scalp.
England fans will hope that Rehan, who batted with impish confidence last night, continues in the same vein and can exploit an Indian attack that was visibly tiring last night. The new ball is due in three overs, though, and the threat Messrs Bumrah, Ashwin, Jadeja and Patel pose with a harder ball will be significantly more difficult to tackle.