Nigeria will likely face more security and economic challenges following the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger as the country’s fight against insurgency and economic challenges.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctioned the three countries for suspending constitutional governance by the military juntas
In response, on Sunday January 28, the three countries officially took a sovereign decision to pull their nations out of ECOWAS.
The ECOWAS was originally formed by the 15-nation bloc in 1975 to promote economic integration among member states.
But it has struggled in recent years to reverse a wave of military takeovers in the region, including Mali in 2020 and 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022 and in Niger 2023.
What the law says about an exit
Article 91 of the ECOWAS Treaty states that: “Any Member State wishing to withdraw from the Community shall give to the Executive Secretary one year’s notice in writing who shall inform Member States thereof.
“At the expiration of this period, if such notice is not withdrawn, such a State shall cease to be a member of the Community.”
Meanwhile, criticism has been growing over the bloc’s strict sanctions against Niger, including the threat of force following the July ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum.
Analysts in diplomatic circles believe that ECOWAS should have applied diplomacy and persuasion more in dealing with these countries. They stressed that their exit has far-reaching implications on both the economy and security of the Sahel region, raising concerns of terrorism.
‘Niger as a security buffer for Nigeria’
A diplomatic expert and the former Director General of the Nigeria Institute of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Professor Bola Akinterinwa, opined that with the withdrawal, Nigeria will begin to play host to an intensified terrorism regionally from the Sahel.
“Niger is the middle country between Nigeria and the whole of the Magreb region. The gas project passing through Niger will certainly be affected.
“Secondly, the strategic collaborations between Nigeria and Niger would be frustrated especially in Lake Chad region. In 1976, Nigeria played a mediator role in the Lake Chad basin and in this particular case, what will happen to that?” he asked.
He further said: “Lake Chad is where the terrorists are based. We have a situation whereby countries like Niger, Chad and Cameroon have a foothold there. We need an interwoven collaboration but these would no longer be.
“In fact, what will happen to Nigeria in the foreseeable future is that Nigeria will no longer be able to contain terrorists act. The border will be opened and more importantly, we have a situation whereby Russia is supporting the three countries.
“France and America are against Russia. But Nigeria wants to become a stooge. Nigeria must tread more cautiously and do whatever is possible to reconcile. Niger is an enemy you have to deal with; that is, if it is an enemy.”
He, however, advised Nigeria and the ECOWAS to adopt policies that will enforce calculation before engaging those countries
“Let us adopt policies with common sense. Let us avoid making an offensive statement in this particular case.”
He also suggested that Nigeria should review the police of unconstitutional change of government.
What do you want to do? Do you want to sanction the people or to sanction for instance, the government? These are the policy directions
Economic activity
Professor Akinterinwa said some countries had already prepared to assist with the challenges these three countries are having.
“I don’t see any problem whatsoever there. Niger is now a proxy state so are Mali and Burkina Faso,” he said
He, therefore, said, Nigeria does not have any alternative than to discuss with Niger because neighbours cannot be replaced
“Niger Republic is a neighbour of Nigeria by the principle of propinquity and by the principle of geopolitical contiguity. So, in this case, what you cannot avoid, what do you do? You have to concede.
“Otherwise, this is going to deal a blow on trade integration. The main concern is that there is a diplomatic failure, which could have a spiral effect on other member countries. There is a tendency for more countries to withdraw from ECOWAS because they don’t see the consequences of this action,” he added.
The three countries of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso is a trade corridor that has strong business links from Northern Nigeria through the Sahel countries and stretching to Libya. The exit will affect the trade route.
A senator representing Kebbi Central senatorial district, Adamu Aliero, had also recently raised concern that several states in Northern Nigeria bordering Niger were facing acute hunger as a result of border closure and restrictions of trade routes.
Diplomatic implications
He said Nigeria’s Institute of International Affairs is there as structure for Nigeria to leverage on. He, however, said Nigeria’s attitude to foreign affairs is reactive rather than being programmatic.
“You do not have to wait for the wait for event to occur. What you need to do is to have a programmatic research challenge. The Institute of International Affairs should carry out studies in such a way that it will anticipate all these problems and carry out policy progression.
“The exit of these countries at a point when Nigeria heads ECOWAS leadership, was a result of poor exploration of diplomatic channels.
“There is a need for foreign policy drive to re-strategise and think around the foreign policy. The grievance of some of the exited countries is that the management and leadership of ECOWAS are beginning to derail from the founding fathers’ vision.”