The COP29 climate talks opened on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, under the long shadow cast by the re-election of Donald Trump, who has pledged to roll back the United States’ carbon-cutting commitments.
Countries have gathered in Baku for the main United Nations forum on climate diplomacy after fresh warnings that 2024 is on track to break temperature records, adding urgency to a fraught debate over climate funding.
However, Trump’s return looms over the discussions, with fears that an impending US withdrawal from the landmark Paris Agreement to limit global warming could reduce ambition around the negotiation table.
“We cannot afford to let the momentum for global action on climate change be derailed. This is a shared problem that will not resolve itself without international cooperation, and we will continue to make that case to the incoming president of one of the world’s largest polluters,” said Vanuatu’s special envoy for climate change and environment, Ralph Regenvanu.
Outgoing President Joe Biden is staying away, as are many leaders who have traditionally appeared early in COP talks to lend weight to the proceedings. Only a handful of leaders from the G20, whose countries account for nearly 80 per cent of global emissions, are attending.
Afghanistan will, however, be sending a delegation for the first time since the Taliban took power. They are expected to have observer status.
Diplomats insist that these absences, and Trump’s win, will not detract from the serious work at hand, especially the need to agree on a new figure for climate funding to developing countries.
Negotiators are expected to increase the $100 billion-a-year target to help developing nations prepare for worsening climate impacts and transition their economies away from fossil fuels. Points of contention include the amount, who will pay, and who can access the funds.
‘It’s Hard’
“It’s hard. It involves money. When it comes to money, everybody shows their true colours,” said Adonia Ayebare, Ugandan chair of a bloc that includes over 100 mostly developing countries and China, to AFP on Sunday.
Trump, who has repeatedly dismissed climate change as a “hoax,” has vowed to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement. However, Ayebare downplayed the potential consequences, noting that Trump already withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement during his first term.
“This has happened before; we will find a way of realigning,” he said.
Developing countries are pushing for trillions of dollars and insist that funding should mostly come in the form of grants rather than loans. Without the money, they warn they will struggle to submit ambitious updates to their climate goals, due early next year.
“Bring some money to the table to show your leadership,” said Evans Njewa, chair of the Least Developed Countries Climate Group, which represents 1.1 billion people.
However, the small group of developed countries that currently contributes wants to see the donor pool expanded to include other wealthy nations and major emitters, including China and the Gulf states.
During a closed-door session on Sunday, a Chinese official cautioned that the talks should not attempt to “renegotiate” existing agreements. Liang Pei, an official at China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, urged negotiators to address “the climate crisis collectively and constructively.”
‘Worth It’
The talks take place amid fresh warnings that the world is far off-track in meeting the Paris Agreement goals. The agreement commits countries to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally under 1.5 degrees.
However, the world is on track to exceed that level in 2024, according to the European Union climate monitor.
Although this would not immediately breach the Paris deal, which assesses temperatures over decades, it suggests the need for much greater climate action.
Earlier this year, the UN warned that the world is on track for a catastrophic 3.1°C of warming this century based on current actions.
“Everyone knows that these negotiations will not be easy,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “But they are worth it: each tenth of a degree of warming avoided means fewer crises, less suffering, less displacement.”
More than 51,000 people are expected to attend the talks, running from November 11 to 22, 2024.
For the second year running, the talks are hosted by a country heavily reliant on fossil fuels, following the United Arab Emirates last year. Azerbaijan has also been accused of stifling dissent by persecuting political opponents, detaining activists and suppressing independent media.