Figures from US research firm Rystad Energy suggest that the world will need to invest $3.1 trillion into electricity grid infrastructure before 2030, if the world is to limit global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius by 2050.
This investment would dramatically expand the world’s electricity grids, adding 18 million kilometres of grid connections, and requiring the use of close to 30 million tonnes of copper.
The clean energy transition is increasingly facing a challenge when it comes to grid capacity, as the rapid construction of new renewable power plants often exceeds grids’ capacity to take power from these projects.
According to the Oslo-based energy think tank, if the world is to limit global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, $3.1 trillion of grid infrastructure investments are required before 2030.
In that scenario, an additional 18 million kilometers of grid network would be needed to keep pace with the electrification underway across cities and counties, including new renewable energy capacity and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles.
This would take the total length of all power grids worldwide to 104 million kilometers in 2030, expanding to 140 million kilometers in 2050 – almost the same distance from Earth to the sun. The immediate expansion by 18 million kilometers would necessitate nearly 30 million tonnes of copper, a commodity already in short supply.
Growing global power demand is the main factor driving the need for grid enhancements. This rise is driven by population expansion, industrialization, and urbanization in developing countries, and efforts to mitigate climate change through electrification.
Cybersecurity, geopolitics, and the increasing priority for securing a reliable national energy supply also contribute to the need. Yet, inefficient regulatory frameworks could significantly delay grid developments and, in turn, the energy transition.
Edvard Christoffersen, senior analyst at Rystad Energy said that power grids will be both an enabler and an obstacle to the energy transition.
“Mature grids have enabled the rapid expansion in solar and wind capacity seen in recent years, but many national grids are now near or at the point where further connections cannot be made without upgrading or expanding them.
“Annual investment levels must increase if the current trend of renewable energy buildout is to continue,” he said.
Rystad revealed that the total combined length of all transmission and distribution networks globally is around 86 million kilometers, a distance long enough to encircle the planet more than 2,100 times.
“The transmission grid comprises 6 million kilometers of high-voltage lines (over 70 kilovolts [kV]). In comparison, the much larger distribution grid consists of around 8 million kilometers of medium-voltage (10 to 70 kV) lines and a colossal network of low-voltage (less than 10 kV) lines traversing about 72 million kilometers, reaching households in all corners of the world.
“The grid length is set to expand to 104 million kilometers by 2030 and 140 million kilometers by 2050. Asia is set to contribute more than half of global additions this decade, with China and India leading the way as the world’s first- and third-largest power consumers.”
According to Rystad’s forecast, global grid investments will reach $374 billion this year, with China accounting for about 30 percent of the total. Asia will lead in grid expansion investments, but other regions are trying to catch up to keep pace with renewable capacity additions.
