As preparations for the 2024 United States (U.S.) presidential election peak before Tuesday, November 5, 2024, Americans are poised to decide the country’s future leadership amid heightened political tensions.
This will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, during which voters will select electors for the Electoral College, who will, in turn, elect the president and vice president for a four-year term.
The contest between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump, the leading candidates in the race, has continued to intensify.
Kamala Harris, the first woman to serve as U.S. Vice President, aims to make history again by becoming the country’s first female president. Meanwhile, Donald Trump seeks a return to the White House after his 2020 defeat.
While the outcome remains uncertain, several factors will likely shape the election and determine the powerful nation’s next leader.
The presidential election will coincide with elections for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, state governorships, and state legislatures. The winners will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, as the 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States.
It is important to note that the general election on November 5, 2024, is an indirect election. Voters cast ballots for a slate of Electoral College members, who then directly elected the president and vice president on December 17, 2024.
In this article, Tribune Online examines eight key factors that could shape the fate of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
1. Role of Swing States
The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will largely hinge on seven pivotal swing states, also known as battleground states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
While approximately 240 million Americans are eligible to vote, the results in these battlegrounds are expected to be decisive. The U.S. Constitution mandates each of the 50 states to conduct its presidential election and allocate a certain number of Electoral College votes based on population.
Under the Electoral College system, most states follow a “winner-take-all” rule, awarding all electors to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. Candidates need at least 270 out of 538 electoral college votes to claim victory.
Swing states, which historically shift between Democratic and Republican candidates depending on the election, carry significant weight.
2. Party Stronghold States
Republican and Democratic strongholds are set to significantly impact the fate of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Key Republican states, notably Texas and Florida, carry substantial electoral votes and serve as essential battlegrounds where both parties invest heavily in their campaigns.
Meanwhile, Democratic strongholds like California and New York offer Harris a reliable base, bolstering her path to the necessary electoral count. As each side focuses on consolidating its strongholds, these states will form the foundation for the intense showdown in the critical swing states.
3. Celebrity Endorsements
Celebrity endorsements undoubtedly play a crucial role in energising the voter base, as fans often lean towards candidates supported by their favourite public figures.
With the election just days away, several prominent personalities have publicly backed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, aiming to influence critical demographics.
On Harris’s side, celebrities like Beyoncé, Jennifer Lopez, Bad Bunny, Kelly Rowland, Madonna, Ricky Martin, Taylor Swift, Leonardo DiCaprio, Usher, Cardi B, and Billie Eilish have lent their voices to her campaign.
Meanwhile, Trump has attracted support from figures such as the World’s richest man, Elon Musk, Buzz Aldrin, Amber Rose, Kid Rock, Azealia Banks, Dennis Quaid, and Roseanne Barr, each advocating for his return to office.
4. Choice of Vice Presidential Candidates
The selection of Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’s vice-presidential candidate and JD Vance as Donald Trump’s running mate could profoundly impact election dynamics.
Walz, the well-regarded governor of Minnesota, brings a record of progressive policies and practical governance, potentially broadening Harris’s appeal among moderate voters in crucial Midwestern swing states. These states are vital for securing the electoral votes needed for victory.
On the other hand, Vance’s close ties with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party position him to energise Trump’s conservative base, reinforcing the campaign’s appeal among staunch Republican voters.
Walz and Vance’s contrasting experiences and political leanings bring unique strengths to each ticket and could ultimately shape the election outcome.
5. Economy and Inflation
The election is poised to be heavily influenced by economic conditions and inflation, which are top concerns for voters. Despite recent improvements in inflation rates, many Americans still feel the lingering effects of high prices, particularly in essential areas such as groceries and housing, leading to a widespread perception that the economy is struggling.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have addressed these economic anxieties through their campaign platforms. Harris emphasises tax cuts for middle-class families and measures to combat price gouging, while Trump focuses on tax cuts and deregulation to stimulate growth and reduce inflation.
Independent voters in battleground states will be crucial; if they remain focused on the high prices stemming from previous inflation spikes, Trump may gain an advantage. Conversely, if voters recognise the recent moderation in inflation and the strength of job growth, they may lean towards Harris.
6. Immigration Policy
Another factor that could determine the election’s outcome is immigration policy. With an estimated 3.5 million new citizens eligible to vote since the last election, their preferences could significantly influence key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, where naturalisations have surged.
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Trump’s campaign promises to reinstate strict immigration policies, including mass deportations and the revival of controversial measures like the travel ban and the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which resonate with voters concerned about border security.
Conversely, Harris has navigated the complexities of immigration reform by advocating for comprehensive policies that include pathways to citizenship, while also emphasising her experience in addressing cross-border crime.
The two candidates’ contrasting approaches reflect broader public sentiments. A growing number of voters are prioritising immigration as a critical issue, which could potentially sway undecided voters and shape the electoral landscape.
7. Abortion Rights
After the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade, which had ensured abortion rights nationwide, many states enacted restrictive laws, energising voters who prioritise reproductive rights.
Harris has positioned herself as a strong advocate for abortion access, pledging to restore federal protections and framing the issue as a matter of personal freedom and bodily autonomy.
Trump, in contrast, has taken a more reserved approach, applauding the court’s decision but refraining from firmly endorsing a national abortion ban, which has left some conservative voters unsatisfied.
Polls show that a substantial majority of voters, especially women and younger people, support legal abortion, suggesting Harris could effectively mobilise these groups. The candidates’ stances on abortion may play a decisive role in shaping voter turnout and preferences, making it a pivotal issue in the election.
7. Debate Performance
The first and only debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump held on 11 September at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, offered a glimpse into each candidate’s priorities and approaches.
Throughout the 90-minute debate, Trump struggled to focus, often veering off-topic with unusual claims. At the same time, Harris maintained a more structured critique, labelling Trump as a “disgrace” and calling him “weak.” Their clash over key issues, such as the Ukraine conflict, economic policy, abortion rights, and immigration, highlighted their fundamentally different visions.
The impact of both candidates’ performances during the debate could be significant. Undecided and independent voters may find the candidates’ stances pivotal in choosing who best aligns with their concerns on issues like the economy and national security, potentially swaying the election outcome.
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